Manufacturing still weak

Manufacturing still weak I’m still traveling this morning, but for now let me just note that this morning’s durable goods orders showed a decline again: Figure 1 Manufacturing is flat to slightly contracting. The consumer, primarily thanks to lower mortgage rates, is keeping the economy going. [Read More...]

What Kurt Eichenwald says – Saving the Republic

What Kurt Eichenwald says – Saving the Republic When I’m not reading and writing about the economy, I do occasionally comment elsewhere on political topics. So it was on Thursday when, in response to this post asserting that Democrats were powerless to do anything – (including enforcing THEIR OWN GODDAM … [Read More...]

Not doomed yet v.2.0: beware recession porn

Not doomed yet v.2.0: beware recession porn Way back when I first started writing online almost 15 years ago, my very first post on Daily Kos was a little note called “Not Doomed Yet.”  It was pretty pathetic compared with the standards of my writing since the Great Recession, but … [Read More...]

Real average and aggregate wages improved in June

Real average and aggregate wages improved in June Now that we have the June inflation reading, let’s finish out our week focusing on the labor market. First of all, nominal average hourly wages in June increased +0.2%, while consumer prices increased +0.1%, meaning real average hourly wages for … [Read More...]

Twelve Big Picture bullet points on the economy

Twelve Big Picture bullet points on the economy It’s a really slow week for economic data. Really the only important report is new home sales, which will be released Thursday. I’ve been working on a few things, but they are really information-dense and time-consuming to organize, and because … [Read More...]

What I’m watching for this week

What I’m watching for this week This week is going to be a really busy one for economic data. I’m not going to be able to do detailed posts on everything. But because in the past couple of months most of the data has gone against my “2019 slowdown” scenario, … [Read More...]

Real wage growth continued to improve in February

Real wage growth continued to improve in February    Now that we have February’s CPI (up +0.2%), let’s update nominal and real wage growth. First, here is a graph of nominal wage growth YoY vs. consumer inflation YoY since the beginning of this expansion almost 10 years ago: First of all, … [Read More...]

Two economic notes on the shutdown

Two economic notes on the shutdown The government shutdown is the economic equivalent of sustaining -800,000, or -0.5%, layoffs. The last time we saw that was in the Panic of 2008. So needless to say, it is very surprising that last week saw fewer official layoffs than at any time since November 1969. … [Read More...]

Industrial production: strong finish to 2018

Industrial production: strong finish to 2018 Industrial production for December was reported this morning at +0.3%, slightly better than estimates. But what was really surprising is how strong the manufacturing component was, up over 1%: With this reading, YoY industrial production for manufacturing improved to +3.4%, and overall production … [Read More...]